(OK yeah I need to get a life – fair cop)

But the startling thing is that there is another drop in users – just five days after I last checked.

Down by 96,500!

Here are the figures:

• November 11: 1,979,840
• December 11: 1,149,060
• December 18: 1,059,700
• December 23: 963,200

Facebook’s advertising platform estimations can’t be that volatile – can they…

WTF is going on.

On December 18, I thought I would double check these numbers against other cap cities. Today’s numbers are in red.

• Adelaide: 250,000 –> 250,100
• Melbourne: 915,160 –> 915,160
• Perth: 379,420 –> 379,400
• Brisbane: 507,400 –> 507,400

Basically flat in a week – so why is Sydney trending down over 6 weeks?

Here is my first post in this startling series.

Firstly with this post on November 11 and then this update on December 11.

There was one really notable thing about the numbers that Facebook’s own advertising platform produced.

Within a month, Facebook told me that the number of 18-24 years olds in Sydney had fallen by 830k.

Such a massive drop that it didn’t sound right. Surely, enough people would have heard anecdotally about a shift like that.

So I checked in again today and the numbers suggest another step down.

Here are the numbers for that specific segment again:

• November 11: 1,979,840
• December 11: 1,149,060
• December 18: 1,059,700

Down by an additional 89,360 in a week!!

I have consistently included ‘cities within 80kms’.

Could this suggest that Facebook’s user profile is ageing and fewer 18 years old are signing up to the service or growing into it?  Would that explain these numbers, I don’t think so.

Looks like a trend – could it be?

Here are the numbers today for the m/f 18-24 age groups in following cities:

• Adelaide: 250,000
• Melbourne: 915,160
• Perth: 379,420
• Brisbane: 507,400

The notable thing is that the sixth segment (the youngest group that I looked at) has declined significantly.

Nov 11: Australia – age 18 to 64 male and female = 9,290,380
Dec 11: 9,290,380 Flat

Nov 11: Australia – age 18-24 male = 2,048,140
Dec 11: 2,048,140 Flat

Nov 11: Australia – age 18-24 female = 2,096,240
Dec 11: 2,096,240 Flat

Nov 11: Australia – age 25-45 male = 3,091,620
Dec 11: 3,091,620 Flat

Nov 11: Australia – age 24-45 female = 3,560,300
Dec 11: 3,563,300 Up by 3,000

Nov 11: Sydney – age 18-24 = 1,979,840
Dec 11: 1,149,060 Down by circa 800k

Either I mucked up my search the first time around or something weird is happening.  Facebook couldn’t lose 800,000 Sydney users in one month could it?

Facebook does include the caveat that numbers are estimations only but still it seems strange that four out of six numbers are exactly the same.  Obviously the social network can’t grow exponentially for ever. How would Facebook handle the PR around a user exodus do you think… that would be an interesting comms challenge?

Back in one month.

]]> http://justanother24hours.com/social-media/is-facebook-flat-lining-in-australia-or-even-worse-losing-users/feed/ 0 http://justanother24hours.com/politics/can-we-rely-on-social-media-google-or-facebook-to-drive-change/ http://justanother24hours.com/politics/can-we-rely-on-social-media-google-or-facebook-to-drive-change/#comments Thu, 27 Oct 2011 09:59:30 +0000 Daniel Young http://justanother24hours.com/?p=1434 When social media came into being it generated a significant groundswell of people that believed that it would be a positive thing for society and community.

By forcing businesses to become more transparent and distributing the means of media production it was argued that our society would change for the better.

This point of view probably peaked in 2006/7 but bubbled below the surface for a lot longer than that.

I fully subscribe to this point of view.  I still do.

But there are doubts and questions in my mind.

2011 hasn’t done anything to allay my fears.

Since 2008 we’ve seen major abuses of poor by power elites and institutions in almost every sphere of our existence. Yes, these abuses have been exposed but take the global financial crisis as an example and you can see that little has actually changed despite the exposure of the wrong doers.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the Occupy movement spring up but I don’t believe that any Government is actually really listening.  Yes, they have a voice.  Yes, they’ve gained some media coverage for their struggle and point of view but to what end.  Will anything really change?  The strong arm tactics employed by the police in the UK, Australia and USA would suggest that the traditional institutions still have the right to operate in the way that they see fit.

Taking a slight tangent here the one thing that really concerns me is this.

The companies that are really benefiting from social media are not complying or furthering the principles of openness and transparency upon which their industry is supposedly based.  Companies like Google and Facebook are in fact operating in very shady and opaque ways when it comes to managing information and data.

What hope is there  for greater transparency in society when the companies at the forefront of social media are acting in this way?

Marx argued that religion is the opiate of the people. Will social media one day assume this moniker?

1. A map of relationships between people
2. A network of connections built around objects

Check out this link for an influential post on the topic of social objects.

It is amazing – bloody amazing.  Its very hard to remember what life was like before the Internet.  The amount of information and the things you can do on the Internet is mind-blowing.  Search engines are amazing too – simply by virtue of the fact that they can scan all of that information in a very very short amount of time.

Search engines are a big part of the Internet.

I think that search engines have achieved an incredible feat.  They are both incredibly incredible and yet more or less completely useless.  The problem is that the search begins when you get a search engine involved, they are what the say they are – a powerful engine for searching i.e. not find engines.

Social search is supposed to be the answer to this problem.  This is where you consult your networks for answers and recommendations.  Rather than chucking keywords into Google or Bing, you put out a tweet, or go to a forum or post a question on your Facebook.  Nice idea in theory but one that falls down unless your network of friends and their brains are equally distributed across the required range of topics and experiences (which is unlikely).

The other challenge is that its not very easy – unless you’re someone like Mike Arrington, Lady Gaga or Russell Crowe – to actually get people to respond.  In my experience the people that respond in social networks are tight connections (thanks guys).  It’s rare that a distant connection responds with an answer or piece of advice via a social network – even though you know they have answers and opinions.  Its good when they do.

It’s different in the real world. People will generally give you an answer if you ask them a direct question.  Its rare that you get a mute blank stare as a response to a question or request for advice although it has happened to me once or twice in France (I drove off).

This is probably why 80% of word of mouth still takes place offline.

What is the solution to this problem – I can’t foresee a future where I ask a question on Twitter and I receive 300,000 results in 0.24 seconds and neither would I want this.

I could probably do something with (a very) Advanced Search in Google but I am not convinced it would work that well.  Natural language processing isn’t the answer either as the real problem is the amount of dud, repetitive information on the Internet.

I’d like a search engine that trawled a limited number of trusted quality sources.  I would have to chose them, though I would be open to recommendations and lists (it would be dangerous to leave the selection process to any third party).  I should have complete control over my sources and should be able to add any that I please.  Could someone create this? Have they already?

Also, has any noticed that Google News is broken?

I doubt that most consumers of digital media are even aware of this phenomenon. The political implications are massive.

It has significant implications for the PR and marketing industries. My first thought is that it steers marketers to advertising, which would add up given that this is the primary revenue stream for the sites in question.

http://m.democracynow.org/stories/11898

You can click on the cover page to get stuck in.